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Vancouver real estate Market 2012

July 26, 2012

Filed under: Vancouver — Richard Morrison @ 7:40 pm
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The real estate market is a moving target at best! And, myths whirl though this industry like no other – especially when they are coming from mass media who like to report (read sometimes distort) on aggregates when what you really need is to pick apart things to see them more clearly… We here at Richard Morrison Re/Max don’t believe what we hear, but only what we study, and what we analyze.


This is where we analyze & discuss the happenings in our Vancouver real estate markets as well as test our analysis. Please feel free to praise, argue, or just rant on about YOUR point of view. It is all good. :-)


Vancouver West

DETACHED (single family homes) – 52 sales on 1037 listings. Projecting 81 for the month (139 last July) for a 12.8 month supply. Massive Buyers’ market

ATTACHED (town homes) – 32 sales on 345 listings. Projecting 50 for the month (62 last July) 6.9 month supply for a Balanced-to-Buyers’ Market

APARTMENTS (condos)- 191 sales on 2301 listings. Projecting 295 for the month (341 last July) for a 7.8 month supply. Buyers’ Market

Vancouver real estate market pic 1

Total inventory for all property types in Vancouver West has edged up extensively.


real estate market in vancouver


The median sale price in Vancouver West has decreased by 14% since last June 2011 to a median price of $1,879,000.
Keep in mind however, that prices since the peak (in January 2012) have fallen from a high of $2,290,000 to $1,879,000 or an 18% drop.
So, I headed on to do more research and dissect the market for one client of mine who was thinking about selling his Attached townhome in the Kitsilano area. He owns a 2 bedroom townhouse ranging in the $460,000 to $550,000.



This I thought which might give me a clue to see if the areas in high demand were also being hit just as hard. (NOTE: This represents a real client and I actually had to do a study for him before he sold. )


My client was taken by surprise when he saw that the Townhouse market of the Kitsilano area has been hardly hit!


What I found was, despite intensive market pressure, something is keeping prices in the town home market in the Kitsilano market resilient to the market pressures so far.


In fact, prices in the town house market in kits have only gone down by 3% since June 2011…



The key take away here is that this is happening in markets everywhere, from Vancouver East, to Vancouver West and Fraser Valley.


Please note that the DETACHED properties (Single Family Homes) in Kitsilano is also doing well (price wise) and median prices remain at $1,600,000+/- with no significant drops. The same is NOT true for other areas of Vancouver West, where we can see more than a 25%+ drop!! SEE CHART BELOW FOR CAMBIE AREA.


The chart above tells me that the Cambie area (Detached single family) was hit by 23.1% since June 2011. Again, the key point here is that there are different dynamics happening ALL OVER THE LOWER MAINLAND.


You need to be informed of what your area is doing if you are thinking of buying or selling…


Now, let’s move onto the Vancouver East Area:


Vancouver East


Detached – 71 sales to date on 708 listings. Projecting 100 sales for the month (144 last year) 7- month supply. Balanced-going-to-Buyers’ Market

Attached (Town Homes) – 18 sales for July (40 last year). Projecting to end up at 28 on 156 listings. A Balanced Market.


Apartment (Condos) – 71 July sales on 563 listings. Projecting 110 (90 last year). If we stay on track we’ll outsell last year in this category. Based on these numbers we have a Balanced Market
I gathered the figures above and confirmed them with our graphs…


Surprising numbers above, showing a balanced market transitioning to a buyer’s market in Vancouver East…


This graph below confirms what analysis we have been watching. The East Side of Vancouver has been more resilient to price drops. Perhaps because it did not rise as much as the West side….?




Despite rising inventory levels, Vancouver East has held its own.


But this may change as we transition into a Buyer’s market.




On another note don’t forget… Yes, we’re in a much slower market, with lagging economic world at the moment. This is probably also the case for the near future. We had great times in the past 10+ years and some things must and do come to an end., but it does not mean a crash!!


The General population must go on… Families downsize, upsize, people relocate, they move away for other reasons…. This market has come and gone… and life goes on…


One thing is for sure, watching the graphs above you can clearly see that market cycles are a FACT OF LIFE!


The best things to do in such crisis if you are thinking about buying is simply… TO BUY!


If you are a seller (or a buyer), comment below and we will send you detailed analysis on the market…


By the way, I thought I would just include a Chart I included in 2008 when the market “crashed.” I told my buyers the same thing… and that was to buy.


Be Approximately Right than Precisely Wrong.

Comment below and we will send you an in-depth detailed analysis on YOUR market for YOUR Property type…


Now I am going to enjoy the last bit of sunshine out there….

Richard Morrison
Real Estate Geek. Richard Morrison is the head & founder of The Richard Morrison Team, a medallion team that has consistently performed in the top 10% in the past 10 years. He is the go to Real Estate Analyst for many investors, home buyers & sellers. He is straight forward & only believes what he analyses and not what he hears.



Comment Below if you’d like me to analyze YOUR area! I will send you a detailed report with graph’s and all the Analytical stuff I love to do…

This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing agency agreement.

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27 responses to “Vancouver real estate Market 2012”

  1. Pat says:

    Great work. Could I get same for the Guildford/Surrey area?

  2. Vaidy says:

    very interesting. what is happening in the condo market in South Burnaby/Central park/metrotown areas

  3. Natalie says:

    I appreciate your feedback, I am keeping in mind that there is no
    point trying to pinpoint a price until my mom is ready to sell, was just
    trying to figure out if it would sell as 2 lots or just one big one.

  4. Curtis says:


    Thanks, I appreciate keeping abreast of the market, as we have held off from purchasing a home until we see some stability rerun to the economies.

    Kind Regards


  5. Victor says:

    Hi Richard, i tink that you have very good information, as you know i am looking for an apartment but it dont’t have nothing to do whit my profession as Journalist and general editor of the most popular Spanish Weeky News Paper of British Columbia B.C, CONTACTO DIRECTO and is coming to the Market every friday, our date line is every tuesday at 5.00 pm, and also editor of the LATIN AMERICAN PHONE BOOK the edition for 20123 is coming on Dec 10, 2012 our date line is every November 15 of each year, i think you have to be in our media because you have more Opctions to offert to our comunity and it is the reason why i am introdicing to our Media because you can bring to your listing as costumer all the Latin Communty, to do that i have available 1/4 paqge in front page in the phone book to the next edition and speciaL page in the weekly issues .

    if you are interesting to promotre your good services please contact me.

    thank you very much for your time and support,



  6. Wayne Jiang says:

    Great analysis !

  7. Marilyn says:

    Hi Richard
    I have a friend thinking of selling a detached house very large lot North Vancouver assessed at 910.
    Whats North Van like right now for sales?

  8. Seeger says:

    Thank you Richard, I will review it. Seeger

  9. Knut Zellerer says:

    Thanks for the info. I am still looking to buy a revenue condo but wait it out as I think a correction is in the cards .


  10. Judi says:

    I see the market for detached homes have tipped dramatically in favour of buyers and I assume that also translates into mores days on the market.
    My question is:are houses on the West Side selling under the assessed value?

  11. Don says:

    Good morning Richard: you are doing a great job keeping us informed.
    However we visited that lunatic bin called Vancouver a few weeks ago and decided
    We would stay here on Vancouver Island where we are safe and vehicle traffic is bearable.

    Best Regards

  12. Monir says:

    Thanks for the report. I would like to receive your analysis. Please see above.

  13. Falk says:

    Hi Richard,

    This is a really interesting study. Can you do something similar for the New Westminster condo market? Maybe with an approximate outlook over the next 24 months. Does it make sense to sell now or later in that market?


  14. Thanks Richard!
    I really enjoy the case studies!

    You’re smart guy – passing on the knowledge helps get the rest of us out here!


  15. Makram says:

    Thank you for your email. I have a rancher in Pitt Meadows that I purchased back in 2007, but I am considering at some point within the next couple of years buying a bigger house, likely within the Tric-Cities area. I would like to touch base with you and discuss the timing as well as opportunities for growth within that area.
    One option that I might consider is rent the rancher that I have and purchase the bigger house where I would live, as opposed to selling the rancher and using the money as downpayment for the bigger house.
    please let me know when would be a good time for us to touch base. It would be helpful if you could also please email me a couple of plots similar to what you have shown below for houses within the Tri Cities area.
    Regards, Makram

  16. diansyahputra says:

    Hi Richard, I have been following your blog for 1 year, good work.
    I have a house that I currently use for investment and planning to sell it may be in 10 years, it is located in hastings renfrew area
    What do you think, as I think, as I see alot of development in the neighborhood, that may sustain the investment in long run. thanks.

  17. Marian says:

    Burnaby – Attached!

  18. Christian says:

    Please give me your current opinion on detached homes in East Abbotsford. I am in the position to buy, but feel I should be holding onto cash and waiting a few months.

  19. fauze says:

    Hi Richard,
    Please let me know of North Vancouver analysis (detached).
    Thank you.

  20. Dear readers,

    Thank you all for your comments, rants and requests!
    Yesterday was my birthday so I’m taking the weekend off.

    But I will revert back to each of you very shortly next week!

    Take care!

  21. Marian says:

    Happy Birthday Richard! my message was very short looking for the same analysis for Burnaby – Attached (townhomes). I was surprised by the data for east vancouver attached (13.2%) increase of median price compared with last year. We are trying to sell our townhome in Burnaby and our agent is telling that we have to drop the price?

  22. James says:

    Richard, thanks for giving everyone your time to compile these analyses. Great to include 6 yr trend by type as well. It gives us all something to consider. West vs East side may be a result of demographic. West likely has more international investment causing more volatility due to speculation, immigration/emigration and world economic fluctuation. Whereas east may be more long time stable Vancouver residents. Anyway, I’m particularly interested in apartment trends for East false Creek developments (eg Main & Mt Pleasant) vs East N. Van (eg 2nd Narrows & Deep Cove). Both of these are major new condo Development areas in coming years. What’s your analysis? Thanks

  23. Richard Morrison says:

    Hi all!

    I will be replying to all if you individually by the end of Thursday…
    Thank you for the great participation here so far. Many insightful perspectives indeed.

    They aren’t making any more land, but they are making more condos.  Lots more condos.
    In fact, 8,000 new condos are coming around. Last year 4,000 condos sold in Vancouver… As such the law of supply and demand apply here… There will be a huge supply of condos hitting the market.

    MPC Intelligence started tracking new condo projects in Vancouver in 2005.

    They just recorded the busiest six months on record for announced new concrete condo projects.

    As such I would expect further downward pressure in condo prices.

  24. Abbas says:

    Dear Richard,

    Please update me regards Coal Harbour Condos.

    Wait your reply.


  25. chit says:

    What is the projected current market price for a two bed room townhouse (950 sqft) in Capitol Hill ( north Burnaby ) built in 1995 in good condition. A price per sq.ft will be appreciated

  26. elaine says:

    Hi Richard

    Would appreciate your advice and analysis of the following
    * Outlook and market forecast for single family homes in West Vancouver
    * Market forecast of recreation properties in Sunshine Coast and in Fraser Valley. Specifically I am looking at the Cottages at Cultus Lake. What is your assessment of the potential for capital appreciation for this development in the future and is this the right time to buy a recreation property there?
    Thank you

  27. Richard Morrison says:

    Hi Folks, I have left a thorough VIDEO analysis here answering most of your requests:

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